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A Prophet Speaks: When to Buy a Home

As someone who makes a living helping people buy and sell homes in New Jersey, I have a lot of respect for a former Goldman Sachs banker named John R. Talbott. Talbott clearly understands housing markets; he saw the coming collapse long before many industry professionals did. In 2003 he published The Coming Crash in the Housing Market and followed it up three years later with Sell Now! The End of the Housing Bubble. So when I saw his piece "Homes--Buy Now!" in the Huffington Post last month, I was intrigued.

Talbott notes that home prices have tumbled: adjusted for inflation, homes are currently selling for around what they were back in pre-bubble 1997. In addition, mortgage rates are at historic lows. Talbot doesn't necessarily think that these ultra-low rates are good for the American economy when our national debt is equal to our total GDP and more than four times the amount of total tax revenues. He foresees the return of  inflation and high interest rates as the only solution to our huge national debt. If he is correct, as he has been in the past, then this really is the best possible time to buy a home.

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